PILLAR 02 · MARKET PULSE Market Commentary EP 049

Fixed vs Variable Mortgage: Investor Strategy for a Changing Rate Environment

A solo episode with Dalia Barsoum, Principal Broker, Streetwise Mortgages
Play: Fixed vs Variable Mortgage: Investor Strategy for a Changing Rate Environment
LISTEN ON ▶ YouTube
7 min · April 12, 2023 · 502 views
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
  1. Why the Bank of Canada pause in spring 2023 created an unusual inverted rate environment where short-term fixed rates dropped below variable rates.
  2. The critical difference between adjustable-rate and fixed-payment variable mortgages when rates begin to decline.
  3. Why locking into a long-term fixed mortgage could prevent you from benefiting when the rate cycle turns downward.
  4. How to ride the rate roller coaster down to improve monthly cash flow and save interest over time.
  5. Why you must check your lender’s policy before choosing a fixed-payment variable product if you want your payment to drop with future rate cuts.
  6. How to prepare your balance sheet for tighter lending guidelines by increasing secured liquidity and restructuring expensive debt.
Show Notes
Timestamps 7
Questions Answered 4
Mentioned In This Episode 1
In this episode, Dalia Barsoum cuts through the noise of the spring 2023 rate environment to help investors make an informed—not emotional—mortgage decision. She breaks down the unusual market backdrop where the Bank of Canada paused hikes, inflation began easing, and bond market reactions to the Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse collapses caused fixed rates to invert below variable rates. Dalia explains why the rate hike cycle appeared to be ending and why the market was pricing in future cuts.



She then delivers a clear financing playbook: if you are in an adjustable-rate mortgage, she advises riding the rate roller coaster down to capture immediate cash-flow relief. If you are in a fixed-payment variable mortgage, she warns that your payment may not drop automatically and suggests reviewing your lender’s policy. For new purchases, renewals, or refinances, she recommends avoiding long-term fixed products that would lock you out of falling payments, and instead considering a one-year fixed or variable term. Finally, she highlights the importance of increasing liquidity via secured lines of credit and restructuring expensive debt before tighter lending guidelines arrive.
Should I choose a fixed or variable mortgage right now?

For new financing, renewals, or refinances, Dalia suggests considering a one-year fixed or a variable/adjustable rate mortgage rather than a long-term fixed product. This positioning allows you to benefit from expected rate cuts on the horizon. However, she emphasizes that your final decision must be made within the context of your personal financial situation and property plans.

Will my variable mortgage payment go down when the Bank of Canada cuts rates?

Only if you hold an adjustable-rate mortgage. If you have a variable mortgage with a fixed payment, there is no guarantee your monthly payment will decrease. You must check your specific lender’s policy, because the allocation beneath the surface may simply shift between interest and principal rather than lowering your required payment.

Why are short-term fixed rates currently lower than variable rates?

Fixed rates dropped over the weeks prior to this recording as bond markets reacted to credit uncertainty following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. This created an unusual inverted environment where one- to five-year fixed terms became cheaper than the five-year variable rate.

What should I do to prepare for tighter lending guidelines?

Consider increasing liquidity by setting up a secured line of credit or increasing an existing one. You should also restructure any expensive debts now, which will enhance how your balance sheet looks for any future financing needed under tighter lending guidelines.

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