PILLAR 02 · MARKET PULSE Market Commentary EP 022

Fixed vs Variable Mortgage Rates: Investor Strategies for 2021

A solo episode with Dalia Barsoum, Principal Broker, Streetwise Mortgages
Play: Fixed vs Variable Mortgage Rates: Investor Strategies for 2021
LISTEN ON ▶ YouTube
6 min · January 20, 2021 · 684 views
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
  1. Where Bank of Canada overnight rates and government bond yields are expected to head in 2021 and beyond.
  2. Why real estate investors should generally choose variable rate mortgages for portfolio flexibility and equity recycling.
  3. When homeowners should opt for fixed rate mortgages based on stability needs and future plans.
  4. The hidden restrictions and requalification requirements behind mortgage porting and same-lender refinancing.
  5. How to perform a cost-benefit analysis when breaking a fixed rate mortgage to switch to a lower variable rate.
  6. Why breaking a fixed rate mortgage in year one or two often fails to offset the penalty costs with interest savings.
Show Notes
Timestamps 5
Questions Answered 4
In this episode of the Property Pulse Report, Dalia Barsoum tackles the two most common rate-related questions on every borrower's mind: should you choose a fixed or variable mortgage, and is it worth breaking an existing high fixed-rate loan to switch to variable? With rates sitting at historic lows amid pandemic-driven economic uncertainty, she shares the Bank of Canada's outlook for 2021 through 2023 and explains how government bond yields are driving fixed-rate pricing.



She then breaks down a practical decision framework for different borrower profiles. Real estate investors are advised toward variable rates for the flexibility to recycle equity and scale, while homeowners seeking payment stability may prefer fixed rates. Dalia also warns about the fine print on mortgage portability and refinancing restrictions before walking through a cost-benefit analysis for breaking a fixed term early—revealing why the math often doesn't work in the first two years.
Should I choose a fixed or variable rate mortgage?

It depends on your situation. If you are a real estate investor looking to recycle equity and grow your portfolio, a variable rate mortgage is recommended because it gives you flexibility. If you are a homeowner with no plans to sell and you are looking for stability in your monthly housing costs and the peace of mind that comes with a fixed rate mortgage, then consider a fixed rate.

Is it worth breaking my current fixed rate mortgage to switch to variable?

You need to run a cost-benefit analysis. Breaking a fixed rate mortgage comes with a penalty, so you must factor in all costs associated with discharging the loan from your old lender and switching to a new lender. In some cases the switch does not make sense, particularly if you are looking to break in year one or two of locking into a fixed rate mortgage, or where the interest savings do not offset the cost associated with breaking the loan.

Can I avoid penalties by porting my mortgage or refinancing with the same lender?

Porting is possible but comes with fine print. Even if your mortgage is portable, you have to requalify to port and lenders often have a window during which you can port, such as only within 90 days of the sale of the property. As for refinancing with the same lender, if at the time of refinancing your income, credit, or portfolio changes, or if the lender has changed their lending policies, then you will be forced to break that loan to explore other alternatives.

Where are mortgage rates expected to go in 2021?

The Bank of Canada has committed to keeping its overnight target rate low until the economy is on demand and the economic slack from the pandemic is absorbed, which is likely to be late 2022 or early 2023. Given this, variable rate mortgages are expected to remain low and stable until 2023. On the fixed rate front, government bond yields started to go higher in August and economists are expecting them to continue to rise as the economy shows stability, which means five-year fixed rates are also expected to rise.

Where do you start?